When the global economic outlook remains unclear, China has brought the world the second quarter of the macroeconomic surprise: GDP grew 7.9%, bottoming out trend evident. Analysts generally attributed to the shift since the fourth quarter last year, the Chinese government launched a large-scale economic stimulus plan, and expects the second half of the Chinese economy will continue to maintain rapid growth.

    Wang Qing, chief economist for Greater China at Morgan Stanley in an interview, said that second quarter GDP growth in China means that 19% of the chain of growth, this growth dynamics than many people expected. He believes the main reason is that the Government policy to stimulate economic growth continued to maintain the momentum, so that the trillions of expansionary fiscal stimulus program and the real effects of monetary and credit policy to be implemented rapidly.

    Over the years, the Chinese economy mainly by foreign trade, investment and consumption this "troika" pull, but since the fourth quarter of 2008, the U.S. financial crisis triggered by the global economic recession led to China's export setback, ending 5 years double-digit economic growth. Last year, annual growth fell to 9% in the fourth quarter fell to 6.8% in the first quarter of this year, economic growth continued to slow down to a decade low of 6.1% quarterly increase.

    In the external environment can not control circumstances, the Chinese government unveiled a stimulus package to try to stimulate investment and consumption through two carriages, to support China's economic development. These include four trillion investment within two years, ten industrial revitalization plans, structural tax, consumption subsidies.

    Semi-annual report recently released the 2009 data show that China's economy completely reversed the 7th consecutive quarter of decline, rebounded into the channel, out of a smile is often used to represent the curve. Second quarter economic growth rate of 7.9%, 1.8 percentage points qoq.

    GDP growth in the first half of the three major demands, the maximum contribution rate of investment, boosting GDP growth of 6.2 percentage points. The second is the final consumption and spur GDP growth of 3.8 percentage points. GDP growth of net exports down 2.9 percentage points.

    Other indicators also show the good trend. Quick to pick up the property market and the stock market, start with the positive growth in electricity generation, manufacturing PMI continued to rise, consumption continues to maintain a rapid growth momentum, the industrial added value to return to double-digit growth, foreign direct investment accelerated downward trend in prices slow, positive growth in revenue began to decline in exports due narrowed and so on.

    For many rebound phenomenon, an economist Zuo Xiaolei, Galaxy Securities, believes that growth is mainly supported by investment, which is more obvious is the effect of policies of the show. Investment-led economic growth, Government has taken the right way, it can quickly steady growth and restore confidence.

    Wang after the crisis that the countries adopted different policies, the strength and speed of responses vary widely, resulting in post-crisis recovery in the pattern of their differences, China happens to be an appropriate example. Chinese government's policy response to China's "strong balance sheet" has become a "nice income statement", so that China is different from that paralyzed the financial system or because of poor fiscal or external balance of payments can not take a strong financial or monetary stimulus policies.

    He said the judge the success of the policy need to be realistic comparison, the current reality is that China did not have the Great Depression, there was no large-scale business failures and massive unemployment, which proves that the policy is successful.

    Employment of migrant workers has always been the focus of attention at home and abroad. National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Li Chao said that the end of the second quarter, the number of migrant rural labor force increased by 378 million in the first quarter, an increase of 2.6%. The first half of 2009, the employment pressure in the second half of 2008 compared with the significantly decreased.

    Wang said that China's rapid growth to boost people's confidence. Chinese enterprises, the recovery industry in resources prices, resource-exporting countries is conducive to economic recovery. Meanwhile, the financial crisis, the Chinese Government is committed to maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability as well as international and domestic financial stability.

    International organizations have also a positive view of China's economic development prospects, the Chinese have raised expectations of economic growth in 2009. Foreign media have also recognized the same time China's stimulus, the German "Focus" magazine in June published an article that in the battle with the financial crisis, China is a socialist economists in the eyes of the world "success model."

    China in the first half to produce a satisfactory answer, but for the second half of China's economic trends, most experts are optimistic. Wang said that, given the achievements of the first half of the Chinese economy will continue in the months remaining this year, presented with progressive, stable recovery, the Chinese economy this year, "Paul August" No question, and a "red nine" strength.

    Morgan Stanley executive director and strategist in Hong Kong and China, Lou said that China's economic growth in the second half of the state have been determined, as long as the policy of the Chinese Government to maintain the stability of the second half less likely to occur repeatedly.

    Experts generally believe that the current policy of maintaining stability.

    "I do not propose to adjust current policy early, because there are uncertainties, exports and private investment is still weak, but also the need for policy support. In the real economy is not fully restored until early changes in the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy could lead to downside risks to economic double. "Wang said.

    "If out of 10, I will give the Chinese government measures taken in response to the crisis hit 9 points." Wang said.

    Experts believe that another how to get even one point in the future as the key. The Chinese government need to be more flexible and more effective policies to adjust China's economic development model and maintain stable economic growth to achieve the Government's commitment to the success of "expanding domestic demand, growth, adjusting structure, promoting people's livelihood" combine. (Source: Xinhua)