2010, global economic and financial situation in an atmosphere of cautious optimism start. Last year, unprecedented in intensity and extent of anti-crisis measures for unprecedented international cooperation, seems to have succeeded in reversing the economic deterioration rare.

Economic data and financial market performance, indicates that prospects are improving. January IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report will no doubt reflect the more optimistic expectations. Developed economies, the economic situation in the short term it seems more optimistic. For example, the U.S. corporate sector reacted strongly to the economic downturn, layoffs, cut inventory and reduce the intensity of investment is very large. Indeed, the U.S. industrial and commercial enterprises in the past two years can not even make up for depreciation of capital investment. The result is that these radical adjustments, the recent rise in final sales and corporate profits will drive capital accumulation. This has the early stages of economic recovery with the typical characteristics of accelerated growth.

However, for developed economies, the overall recovery status, we have not yet returned to the "normalization", there is still good reason to worry about the future. High unemployment and the accompanying weak income growth, limits the ability to spend. Assets and liabilities of the household sector prospects but also to consumer uncertainty cast a shadow. Despite the improvement in financial conditions, but all accounts, it is still from the "normalization" very far. Some departments, particularly the loss of commercial real estate sector credit is still on the rise.

Overall, economic activity in developed economies are still far below the level of potential output, firms and households are still cautious, the bank lending also appears weak, signs of inflation is not obvious. Integrated large output gap, low inflation and modest recovery of these characteristics, the IMF seems to begin now to support growth from fiscal and monetary policies are not yet ripe to exit.

On the positive side, some of the growth prospects of emerging market economies cause for optimism, especially in Asian countries. This reflects the improvement in export demand and domestic demand in these countries support the policy of the great flexibility. Weakness in the developed economies and the global low interest rate environment, strong capital inflows are once again outstanding performance of emerging economies.

Looking ahead, the new decade will face a series of challenges, including five more crucial.

The first is to ensure the recovery, to ensure that the policies of major economies to continue to properly support the economic expansion, the world must also maintain good coordination.

Of particular note is that the developed economies, fiscal stimulus in 2010 should be implemented to the letter, even those who have started to consider the debt by reducing spending and to get the medium-term fiscal stability and sustainable track countries, the fiscal year stimulation can also withdraw.

To ensure that strong global growth, but also need to find a new growth model, in the next few quarters, between the major economies need to be actively adjusted to ensure that the rebalancing of growth momentum achieved significant results. Pittsburgh G20 meeting between the countries reached to implement the balanced growth of the framework agreement. IMF is helping to provide analytical support to multilateral cooperation.

The second challenge is to ensure that the poorest and most vulnerable to crisis-hit countries to resume growth. 2003-2006, sub-Saharan IMF venture since the U.S. won the fastest sustained economic growth, per capita income rose. Despite their growth in developed economies will drive growth in these poor countries, but directly from the IMF and the like to help also benefit.

The third challenge is financial reform. The purpose of financial reform in three areas: more efficient, reducing the risk of uncertain future, assess the potential costs of financial crisis. These are the major issue worthy of study.

The fourth challenge is to restructure and reform the current key international financial institutions of governance. The creation of 20 leaders meeting for these reforms has taken a key step, the leaders also IMF's governance reform goals are also made some commitments.

Fifth challenge is thinking about macroeconomic management, it will be the next few quarters (and perhaps a few years) the subject of intense debate people. 1980 and 1990 known as the "era of big sound," which is a high growth and low inflation, steady growth in time, its achievements may make policy makers and scholars feel that the long-popular rule-based sustainable economic thinking and effective . However, the crisis has made this idea of ​​the challenges, not only to the original system problems, and many economic and financial policies related ideas should be questioned. Conduct a comprehensive review and this assessment is also essential.

(Source: Securities Times)